A forecast from CCS Insight suggests that, thanks to the Apple Watch, sales of wearables could grow from 29 million in 2014 to 172 million in 2018, with 2015 representing a spike in sales. The company expects Apple to sell 20 million smartwatches by the end of 2015.
CCS Insight has created an infographic to illustrate its wearables forecast, which you can view below.
Apple Watch: Who will buy the Apple Watch
Who will buy the Apple Watch is a big question. Aside from Apple fanatics, who would want to wear this high priced smartwatch?
According to app creation company Conjure, a survey of 2000 Brits has found that 1 in 10 of respondents said that they are interested in buying the Apple Watch. If that figure applies to the whole of the UK (it probably doesn't) then 8.3 million people in Britain alone might buy an Apple Watch.
Interestingly, though, 13% said that a fashionable design is the most important quality of a smartphone (that's a tick for the Apple Watch), while 12.5% said that battery life needs to last for at least a week on one charge (that's definitely NOT a tick for the Apple Watch).
A Quartz survey of US smartphone users has found that 2.2% of iPhone owners are “extremely likely” to buy an Apple Watch. Another 3.2% are “very likely” to buy Apple’s watch while 14.3% are they’re “somewhat likely”. That leaves 18.9% who are “not so likely”, and 61.4% who state that they are “not at all likely” to buy one.
Another survey by Morgan Stanley back in November, predicted 30 million Apple Watches will sell in 2015 based on their AlphaWise survey, which “indicates initial purchase intentions in the US are higher than they were for the iPhone and iPad pre-launch." Morgan Stanley predicts that at launch the Apple Watch will have a 10% penetration rate, compared to the iPhone, which had a 7% rate and the iPad, with 14%.
Yet another poll of 4,000 people in the UK, US, India and China by UBSsuggested that 10% of smartphone users are “very likely” to buy a smart watch. The Apple Watch was likely to be purchased by 25% of positive respondents. However, that survey suggests that the Samsung Gear is the most likely device to be purchased at 37%.
According to the Quartz poll, the high cost (starting at $349/estimated at £300) was one reason for the lack of interest. Of those interested in buying an Apple Watch, 60.1% said they would not pay more than $200, while 25.7% said they would pay $200-$299, and 8.6% were happy to pay from $300-$399.
A two-party survey of 8,266 consumers done in May and October by Futuresource Consulting found that interest in smartwatches had soared in recent months, even as it has stalled for smart glasses. Much of the uptick in interest in smartwatches coincided with Apple's announcement in September that it would begin selling the Apple Watch in early 2015.
When Futuresource asked 4,000 consumers in the US, UK, France and Germany in May whether they intend to buy wearable tech, 4% expressed interest in a smartwatch. That number more than doubled to 9% in a follow up survey of 4,266 consumers in October.
As for iPhone owners asked in May about their wearable tech buying plans, 6% wanted a smartwatch. That number almost tripled to 17% in October – a month after the Apple Watch announcement.
Futuresource has predicted 51 million wearable devices of all types will be sold in 2014, with 74 million sold in 2015. Even though that number is rising, it still remains a small portion of the 1 billion-plus smartphones that will be sold in 2014.
One way to estimate how many watches Apple might sell is to look at how many people wear watches. The Quartz poll asked how many in the polled group wore a watch, and whether it was a permium product. It found that half of those surveyed wear a watch, but of those, only 17.2% wear a luxury brand. Premium watch brands were worn by 44.1%.
Another group of people who might be interested in the Apple Watch are those who already wear an activity tracker. According to a separate Morgan Stanley survey, 6% of those polled currently own a wearable device, including fitness trackers.
Those interested in getting the most out of their connected home appliances may also be interested in the Apple Watch. One trend that the Apple Watch is likely to be at the forefront of is the Internet of Things, and IDC predicts that this new market will be worth $7 trillion by 2020. The research agency (that is a sister company to Macworld publisher IDG) states that the worldwide IoT install base will see a compound annual growth rate of 17.5 percent between 2013 and 2020.
Another area likely to boost the popularity of the Apple Watch is health care. In a Morgan Stanley’s survey, 62% of those polled said they had already made significant changes to their lifestyles due to their wearable devices.
Apple Watch: What competition will the Apple Watch have?
Reports that emerged on 3 March suggest that Google could be developing an Android Wear app for iOS, which would make popular smartwatches from big names including LG, Samsung and Motorola compatible with iPads and iPhones, which could put a huge strain on sales of the Apple Watch.
It's rumoured that Google will announced the plans in May during its annual developer conference.
Android Wear smartwatches tend to be much cheaper than the Apple Watch, so will appeal to those interested in wearable tech but unable to spend the large amount of cash required to get the Apple Watch.
What does Woz think about smartwatches?
Even Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has said that he would welcome an iWatch. However, he seems to keep changing his tune. In 2014 he was dismissing it as a “luxury fitness band,” perhaps because, as he admits in a BBC interview, “I’ve had bad experience with smartwatches so far.”
Now he is being a lot more enthusiastic. In an interview with the BBC Woz states: “Apple makes products more fun than anyone else. If you look at the display it’s almost like a little piece of art … It’s going to be so special. Everyone’s going to notice it, just like you do nowadays when you walk around — ‘You’ve got an iPhone, you’ve got an iPhone, you’ve got an iPhone.’ A lot of people, especially in hip areas, they’re going to be saying, ‘You’ve got the right watch, you’ve got the same watch as me.'”
Woz also talks about the market for the Apple Watch. “I look around a lot of times nowadays and when you’re in groups of older people, they still wear a lot of watches - usually like jewellery. Younger people wear no watch, they got rid of it, because it’s in the way.”
“That’s the question about a smartwatch: is it going to be a new class of jewellery that came back? Obviously, the wrist is free (for new devices), but it has to have a good enough use,” he asks.
Woz also suggests that although niche, measuring blood sugar levels for diabetics could be big, because it’s a “niche market that’s huge already”.
He goes on to say that Apple has “made so many good products that everyone who owns Apple products will buy [the Apple Watch] and that means millions of people will buy this watch from the start. That helps get a critical mass going.”
In the following paragraphs we summarise what Wozniak had said about the Apple Watch, and smart watches in general, in 2014...
Woz believes that wearables will be “a hard sell” for Apple. "Apple works very hard to produce exceptionally great products and doesn't quickly release things like a wearable. So if one is introduced I expect it to have a chance to set the direction and make the product category finally viable," Woz told Cnet.
He goes on to suggest that these wearable devices may be relegated to the same category as Bluetooth headsets: “fun to wear and show off for a day”.
Woz is hoping for a larger screen on the rumoured iWatch. He told Cnet that 1.5in screens aren’t big enough for him. He also hinted that the speaker had better be good if the iWatch is to serve as a speakerphone.
However, Woz is confident that Apple will be able to transform the wearable device market as they did the smartphone market with the launch of the iPhone in 2007.
This isn't the first time Wozniak has spoken about wearables and smartwatches. Back in July 2014, Woz said that he doesn't like the smartwatches he's tested so far. In fact, he hated the Samsung Galaxy Gear so much he sold it soon after he got it. "That was the only technology I bought to experiment with that I threw out after half a day, sold it on eBay because it was so worthless and did so little that was convenient. You had to hold it up to your ear and stuff," he toldXconomy.
Apple Watch rumours: What Apple CEO Tim Cook has said
When Apple CEO Tim Cook introduced the Apple Watch back in September 2014 he said: "Apple introduced the world to several category-defining products, the Mac, iPod, iPhone and iPad. And once again Apple is poised to captivate the world with a revolutionary product that can enrich people's lives. It's the most personal product we've ever made."Apple design guru Jony Ive explained that the Apple Watch includes multiple new technologies and an entirely new user interface designed "specifically for a device that's designed to be worn."
"It blurs the boundary between physical object and user interface," Ive said. "We've created an entire range of products that enable unparalleled personalisation."
Find out more about this personalisation, which is achievable through both hardware and software options, as well as the reasons why Apple believes the Apple Watch will be a category-defining product by reading on.
Apple CEO Tim Cook spoke about the Apple Watch during a talk a the Goldman Sachs conference on 10 February. To begin, he reminded us of Apple's success in the MP3 player industry despite the fact that the iPod was by no means the first. "They weren't used very much. They were fundamentally too hard to use, and the user interface was really bad. You almost needed a PhD to use these. They're not memorable. They didn't really move the dial," he said of the iPod's rivals.
Cook then added that the tablet market had been the same: "There were lots of tablets shipping when the iPad came out. But there was nothing earth-shattering."
Of course, Cook thinks that the smartwatch category is the same, but that the Apple Watch can change it in the way that the iPod and the iPad did with their respective industries. "There are several things that are called smart watches that are shipping, but I'm not sure you could name any. Maybe you could. I'm not sure the audience could name very many. But certainly there's been none that have changed the way people live their lives."
"And so what we want to do at Apple, that's our objective: We want to change the way you live your life," Cook continued. " And just like the iPad has changed the way you work, and hopefully the way you live, and the iPhone has done that, we see Apple Watch doing that."
"I've been using one, and I'm actually wearing one now – but I wear it all the time actually," he added. "And I think one of the biggest surprised people are going to have when they start using it is the breath of what it will do."
Cook then spoke a bit about the design, and the various different colours, band types and sizes available, as mentioned elsewhere in this article. He suggested that we'll be using Siri more often with our Apple Watches, and getting notifications on our wrists.
The most obvious use for the Apple Watch is fitness tracking, though, and Cook says he uses it in the gym to track his activity level. "If I sit for too long, it will actually tap me on the wrist to remind me to get up and move. Because a lot of doctors believe that sitting is the new cancer, right? And arguably activity is good for all of us. And so if you haven't moved within the hour, ten minutes before the hour it'll tap you."
Cook concluded: "It took a little while to get used to, but it's actually very good. And so, there's just an enormous number of things that it will do, and I think you're going to find something that you're going to think, "Wow, I can't live without this anymore!" And you're gonna be deciding you may not want to give up that real estate for that particular watch anymore."
